Mosaic is the world's largest combined phosphate and potash producer — a duopoly-like position in a commodity that the entire global food system depends on. The world cannot grow enough food without potash (K) and phosphate (P) fertilizers, and Mosaic controls massive North American reserves.
At ~$24/share, MOS trades near its lowest valuation in a decade — roughly 0.2x book value and ~10x depressed earnings. The bearish view that fertilizer prices stay weak is partly priced in. The bull case: potash/phosphate prices recover from current lows (MOP ~$255 vs $500+ in 2022 peak), China/India restocking drives demand, and Mosaic's leverage to prices creates outsized earnings upside.
Price sensitivity is dramatic: each $10/tonne increase in potash price adds ~$65M EBITDA; each $10/tonne in phosphate adds ~$80M. If prices merely return to $350 MOP and $750 DAP (well below 2022 peaks), EBITDA roughly doubles and EPS could reach $5–7+.
| Change | EBITDA Impact | EPS Impact (~) |
|---|---|---|
| +$10/tonne MOP (Potash) | +~$65M EBITDA | +$0.28/share |
| +$10/tonne DAP (Phosphate) | +~$80M EBITDA | +$0.35/share |
| MOP back to $350 (+$95/t) | +~$620M EBITDA | +$2.65/share |
| DAP back to $750 (+$80/t) | +~$640M EBITDA | +$2.74/share |
| Segment | Volumes | Price/tonne | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Potash | 9.0M tonnes | $255/t MOP | $1,183M |
| Phosphate | 5.9M tonnes | $670/t DAP | $917M |
| Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil) | Mixed | — | ~$300M |
| Total Adj. EBITDA | — | — | $2.4B |
Mosaic controls about 15% of global potash capacity and 10% of global phosphate capacity. Its Esterhazy K3 mine in Saskatchewan, Canada is one of the world's largest and lowest-cost potash mines. The Jansen mine (BHP-led) won't reach full production until 2027+, limiting near-term global potash capacity additions.
| Competitive Moat | Details |
|---|---|
| Resource ownership | Owns vast deposits in Saskatchewan (K) and Florida/Louisiana (P) |
| Scale | Among top 3 globally in both potash and phosphate |
| Brazil distribution | Mosaic Fertilizantes is a leading distributor in the world's largest ag market |
| Low-cost mines | Esterhazy is first-quartile cost globally |
| Segment | 2026 Volume Target | Capex |
|---|---|---|
| Phosphate | ≥7.0M tonnes (+19%) | ~$1.5B total |
| Potash | ~9.0M tonnes (stable) |
Phosphate volume uplift in 2026 is a meaningful catalyst — if DAP prices hold at $650–700, additional 1.1M tonnes adds ~$500–700M revenue.
| Year | Net Sales | Adj. EBITDA | Adj. EPS | MOP Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 (peak) | ~$19.6B | ~$7.4B | ~$12.00 | ~$570/t |
| FY2023 | ~$14.1B | ~$3.8B | ~$5.50 | ~$340/t |
| FY2024 | $11.1B | $2.0B | $1.80 | ~$220/t |
| FY2025 | $12.1B | $2.4B | $2.27 | $255/t |
| MOS Stock Price Range | $20–$75 over cycle | Highly correlated to K/P prices | ||
Peak-cycle EPS was $12/share; at $24 today that's 2x peak earnings. Trough-cycle (FY2024) EPS was $1.80. The stock essentially follows fertilizer prices with leverage.
FCF was -$535M in FY2025 due to $1.36B in capex (mine development + phosphate expansion). 2026 capex guidance of ~$1.5B means FCF could remain negative or near zero even with better prices. This is a capital-intensive business with heavy reinvestment requirements.
| MOP / DAP Scenario | Adj. EBITDA Est. | EPS Est. | Stock Implied (~6x EV/EBITDA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current ($255 / $670) | $2.4B | $2.27 | $18–28 |
| Modest recovery ($300 / $720) | ~$3.2B | ~$3.80 | $30–40 |
| Meaningful recovery ($350 / $750) | ~$4.0B | ~$5.50 | $45–60 |
| Supercycle repeat ($500+ / $900+) | ~$6.0B+ | ~$10.00+ | $80–100 |
| Scenario | Target | Prob | Key Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Bear | $10 | 10% | MOP falls to $175, DAP $550, demand destruction from AI/alternative proteins, BHP Jansen oversupplies market |
| Bear | $18 | 20% | Prices stable at current depressed levels ($255 MOP), FCF remains negative, debt burden grows |
| Base | $35 | 40% | Modest price recovery to $300–320 MOP and $720 DAP, FCF turns positive 2027, volume growth on track |
| Bull | $60 | 22% | India/China restocking drives demand surge, MOP $380–400, DAP $780, EPS $5–6, re-rates to 10x P/E |
| Extreme Bull | $100 | 8% | Supply disruption (sanctions, weather) + food security shock drives $550+ MOP, $900+ DAP; 2022 repeat |
3–5% portfolio weight; pure commodity cycle play